meanwhile scientists are warning we're entering into unchartered territory as the likelihood grows that 2023 will be the hottest year on record for the Earth the average temperature around the globe hits 63 degrees on Thursday that's according to researchers at the University of Maine that was the third Milestone last week alone blasting through other climate records just days earlier and while some scientists with the federal government took issue with that exact data they do agree it's a symptom of a larger problem climate-driven extremes that will have significant consequences for more and as part of our ongoing series Peril and promise I'm joined by New Jersey state climatologist Dave Robinson Dave Robinson good to have you on the show as always talk to me about these record-setting temperatures 63 degrees maybe it doesn't sound that high for a place like New Jersey but we're talking about the globe on average what does this say uh the fact is that the globe keeps warming we're seeing it for multiple reasons the last week or so has made the headlines in terms of perhaps the warmest temperatures on record going back to the last interglacial 120 000 years ago and it's a combination of three things one it's summer in the northern hemisphere and nor the globe is warmer during the northern hemisphere summer because there's more land to heat up in the Northern Hemisphere and southern hemisphere so that's part one part two there is a developing El Nino event in the tropical Pacific and for that matter most of the globe's oceans right now are well above normal temperature wise and they cover 70 percent of the planet so that has an impact and third is human activity it's human it's climate change the background the Baseline on which El ninos develop and which Seasons come and go I'll have a higher Foundation now a growing Foundation of warmth due to human activity so it's it's really a three-part situation that's leading to these warmest global temperatures that have been generated based on models and observational runs going back several decades well I'm glad you you brought up El Nino talk to me a little bit more explain the effect there and what we can expect in the future because of course we only anticipate temperatures to continue warming yeah El Nino is one means of the Earth's oceans reading themselves of some of their heat so you tend to get your warmest atmospheric years temperature wise when there's an El Nino going on in the tropical Pacific when the Eastern Pacific becomes much warmer than normal and it generates different circulation patterns not only in the tropics but across the middle and high latitudes as well and it really disrupts weather patterns so this is just one influence but it's well known that with global warming and in El Nino you're going to find your warmest atmospheric temperatures and that's what we anticipate in the months ahead as a matter of fact because this is only the beginning of this El Nino event after three years of the opposite La Nina type pattern so what does that mean for the future of our summers and especially here in New Jersey and the Northeast where we didn't exactly um break any records last week but it sure as heck was hot and humid yeah we've we've dodged the worst of the heat that's affecting the U.S and other parts of the globe thus far this summer we have to look forward to warmer Summers uh and I attribute a lot of that to the warmer ocean temperatures right off our Coast the oceans are going to keep warming they keep our nights warmer with more moisture in the atmosphere and and with that we're going to see this Relentless pattern of warmer Summers just last summer was one of the warmest on record this summer we've gotten off to a slow start it may not be it doesn't mean that each summer is going to be warmer than the last one but overall the pattern is of increasing warmth in New Jersey where one of the fastest warming states where by a very rapidly warming ocean and with that we're going to have to be prepared for more of this in the future yeah so it may not be a linear rise but a rise nonetheless New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson thank you so much much my pleasure lead funding for Peril and promise is provided by Dr p Roy vagalos and Diana T vagalos major support is provided by the Marcos foundation and Sue and Edgar wachenheim III and the Cheryl and Philip milstein family [Music] [Music]