Music Welcome to Horizonte a weekly series where we take a look at important issues through a Hispanic lens.

I'm your host, Catherine Anaya.

Does President Trum still have the Hispanic support that he had on Election Day?

A recent Pew Research Center survey shows support among Hispanics for the president is falling off.

Joining me now to discuss mor about what this shift means is Doctor Edward Vargas, an associate professor at Arizona State University' School of Transborder Studies, and Stella Rouse, director of the ASU Hispanic Research Center and professor in the Schoo of Politics and Global Studies.

Nice to see you both.

Thank you so much for being here.

Thank you for having me here.

So let's just jump right in.

Doctor Vargas, you talked to Latinos about 100 days after President Trump took office.

Tell me about that.

And why you believe, this shift is happening?

Yeah, similar to other polls that we've seen come out, for example of what the Pew Hispanic Center Research Center, BSP Research Unidos, bunch of other polls have been showing this sor of pessimism about where Latinos sort of view themselves inside this country, as well as economic, concern and burdens that they're facing.

I think the people who have, you know, sort of shifted towards Trump in the last election were either first time voters of peopl who are kind of been independent and really the story of economic and economic security really like, attracted them to, to, to a Trump administration and made them feel, either deceived or they feel like this hasn't gotten better.

In fact, maybe their lives have gotten worse, since this election.

Did you notice a little bit of that sentiment, even after 100 days?

Yeah.

Right away.

Right awa we started seeing, some of this come out and with the polls, but just in general, just the inflation, has sort of kept increasing.

Interest rates haven't gone down.

Then not eve so there's the economics piece, but then there's also the social aspects of the deportations and, and people feeling that their, community is under attack.

I want to get back to all of that in just a moment, but Stella we have some polling on this issue.

Let's take a look at that.

In 2024, 46% of Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Trump.

Now that's up from 32% in 2020.

The Pew Research poll results from October of 2025 show that tide is turning.

5000 Latino adults were surveyed, and that is all Latino adults, not just registered voters.

70% of them said they disapprove of Trump's performance.

But among those Hispanic voter who did vote for Trump, support remains strong, with 81% saying they support him.

However, that's down from 93% at the start of this term, and 65% of all Hispanics surveyed say they disapprove of Trump's approach to immigration.

Now, I know that's a lot of numbers, but Stella, you did some research on Latino identity before the election.

So when you look at those numbers and then look back at what yo discovered before the election, what do you see?

What anything strike you a happening to create this shift?

Yeah.

I mean, I think the economy is a huge issue.

As Edward said a lot of Latinos voted for Trump because they were disappointed in the way the economy was going under, Joe Biden, and thought that Trump, with his promises, could turn the economy around for them.

So there's a lot of buyer's remorse among Latinos.

I think, you know, the identity picture of it is complex and multifaceted in many ways where there are a lot of Latinos that don't have a connection to immigration, per say, a direct connection.

But certainly the way that, President Trump has tackled immigration, I think it's a nerve with Latinos, even if they don't, know someone who is an immigrant or who is at, you know, at risk for deportation.

It's just an approach that I think a lot of Latinos don't approve of.

So do you think, Doctor Vargas, that this is more about economics and social issues rather than politics?

Well, I think it's the intersection of these things.

As as many things.

It's not as it's now as black and white.

Right.

It's a very well.

Brown and ta and and other colors, which kind of, change sort of this conversation.

I think what we did learn is that Latino voters are up for grabs, and you have to you have to compete for them.

The GOP did a really good job of getting folks who would have maybe never voted, who are first time voters particularly made big, inroads with men, particularly men in rural communities.

So I think that what what ended up happening as well was, like, the Latinos are also upset that, you know, the Democrats didn't do anything for ten years.

I mean, sorry, for four years during the first administratio in terms of, of of immigration.

So they were looking for something new.

But what they ended up getting like, my colleague says is remorse for, say, you know, I voted for you, but you said you were going to go after, like, criminals and bad people, but you're going after my brother Theodore.

You're going after, you know, my workers, who are hard working, individuals.

Just today was released tha small Business administration, SBA, is going to stop givin loans to, permanent residents.

This will happen March 1st.

This has a lot of us concerned, particularly as we know that Latino Latino immigrants are really have really high levels of of business entrepreneurship They start a lot of businesses.

So what does this mean that this is this is a when people signed up for it.

Now I think that's people's problem.

Well, and you said, Stella, that, you know, a lot o this is tied to the president's immigration enforcement that's been happening and escalating all over the country.

Talk to me a little bit abou how students at ASU are feeling, because they're out there protesting multiple protests.

Just recently.

Talk to me a little bit about how their sentiment is and how it may have shifted since the election.

Yeah, I think young people are a huge part of the story, and particularly young Latinos.

We saw protests just last Friday, on ASU campus.

And we're seeing it not just on the ASU campus, but at the Capitol.

And young people are leading those protests and those marches, a lot of them are young Latinos that are leading that, and they are being hit particularly hard by these policies, not only economic, but immigration.

And those things intersect, as we talked about.

It's it's multifaceted, but we see young people feeling the effects of inflation when young people are polled.

Inflation is number one across Partizan divide as being one of their major concerns.

Another thing that we don't talk a lot about is the effects of AI.

Young people, especially Latinos, have the highest concern for AI taking away opportunities for them.

And we know that this administration has gone full fledge into AI and supporting AI businesses.

And that's another concern that I think it's both, you know, all the factors that we talk about in terms of perhaps this administration losing support among Latinos and especially young Latinos.

I see you shaking your head, Doctor Vargas, because I don't think we do tal about the AI component enough.

That's right.

I think if you look at workforce and workforce, in the future, I think a lot of Latinos are questioning, you know, what does this workforce look like?

What does the reduction of, for example, opportunities for student loans, those being cut off, for example, if you want to go into medical school, we know that a medical school education is what costs a lot of money.

So for we're saying the cut off is $150,000.

There's no way our students can compete to, to go into that workforce, into the medical workforce.

So I think there's a lot of barriers, and sort of the, withdrawal of, for example, programs through, Department of Education.

And so I think that has a lot of concerns for things.

Again, people didn't sign up for this, right?

They didn't sign up for, government shutdown that lasted as long as the loss of health care, for example.

This isn't this isn't what was promised under this, Trump's administration.

Let's go back to, immigration for just a moment.

In Minneapolis.

Renee Good, Alex Pretti, shot and killed by immigration officers.

In Arizona of course We've talked about seeing a dramatic increase in immigration enforcement and protests.

People are furious.

They're frightened.

More than half of the Latinos in the new, the Pew survey that we've been referencin said they fear deportation for themselves or someone they know, even though many are U.S.

citizens.

So I would love to ask both of you, you know, what does this tell us about the immigration policy in terms of how it's being felt emotionally in our community?

Yeah, I think people's big concern is the lack of due process.

The reality that as a U.S.

citizen, you can be detained.

You can be put in detention and you have no recourse.

Just recently, there was testimony where you had three different, U.S.

citizen individuals who have been detained who were locked up.

One incident in Chicago where a woman was shot.

So it's happening.

I think people in Arizona, particularly during the SB 1070, they understand what this looks like.

What martial law looks like.

And I think that is really concerning for our families, in our communities, in our schools, places where, ICE would never go to the schools to, to to, hospitals.

This is this was unchartered, in the past.

So I think that has a lot of concern for our community.

But I think even amon some folks who were here during SB 1070 are saying this is worse than even that was.

And that was terrible.

Are you seeing the same thing?

Absolutely.

I think even with SB 1070, there were, barriers that kept sort of the the aspect of, challenging this through legal channels.

It went all the way to the Supreme Court.

A lot of SB 1070 was struck down.

We have a situatio now where the administration is just making policy on their own, oftentimes subverting the Constitution.

You know, putting out memos that says, you know, ICE agents don't need a warrant, a warrant from a judg to break into someone's house.

This is just unprecedented, right?

The guardrail that we have had up in the past or at least that were respected in the past, are not being respected by this administration.

And I think that has everyone really scared.

You know, you're not protected as a citizen anymore or a naturalized, person here at you know, you're you're at risk no matter what.

Well, and according to that, Pew Research study, even Latino Trump voters are saying that immigration enforcement has gone too far, even if they don't feel personally at risk.

So what should we take away from that point?

I think one one key key point to this is that, Latino voters are up for grabs.

If you want them, you try to create policies which are inclusive, which include us, which make us feel like we are U.S.

citizens, like everybody else.

That we are protected under the Constitution.

And you know, that, midterms are coming up.

We're already seeing a tide.

The tides are turning in many ways.

And so we're looking forward to 2028.

And hopefully, you know, they, some folks had their turn.

And hopefully maybe at that point other people will have a turn, to, to lead this country in the right direction.

Stella, how do you feel this is goin to, impact upcoming elections?

I think one concern of many, including Latinos, is whether we are going to have free and fair elections in 2026.

We're already seeing signs of potential threats to those elections.

The rat that was done in Fulton County, Georgia just this past week by the federal government.

So I think there's a lot of concern that if the administration, you know, uses extra judicial means for immigration, what else can they do?

You know, what else?

What other uses could they put that?

And I think the elections is a is a big concern.

People are waking up to, things that, you know, were promised by this administratio that have not come to fruition, but instead have gone in the opposite direction.

And as Edward said, I think there are a lot of what we call low propensity voters among the Latino population.

They don't pay attention to everything that goes on day to day.

So maybe they didn't see the warning signs before the 2024 election, or in following project 2025 or anything like that, like we do on a day to day basis.

But they're waking up t the realization of the policies that are being implemented and how that affects not only their communities, but those that you know that serve their communities or, that are employed by that community.

So I think it's a real wake up call in a good way, right where people are paying attention.

Unfortunately, that's what we need with what's going on.

But but I think certainly there's a lot of concern moving into 2026 and later this year.

And since you both deal with students on a regular basis, we saw a lot of student engagement with the last election.

Do you see that happening again?

Yes.

Even more so, yeah.

You know, every year, Latinos turn 18 at a really, really, large number.

So we know particularly that came out of this Pew Hispanic research poll was that, favorability or pessimism was really young people.

I was young people, young women, who were going to come out.

Yeah, I agree.

You know, we've been waiting for that strength in numbers that we always talk about.

We saw that in the last election, and I think we're going to see that even in greater numbers, particularly for a midterm election, where usually turnout is a lot lower.

I think we're going to see large numbers in this, in this midterm election comin up.

Well, we will be watching.

And there is a lot to watch these days.

So thank you both for joining me and sharing your perspectives I appreciate it.

Always.

Thank you.

Good to see you.

That's our show.

And thank you so much for watching for Horizonte and Arizona PBS.

I'm Catherin Anaya We'll see you next time.