JOHN: GOOD EVENING, I'M JOHN YANG.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE TRADED HEAVY DRONE STRIKES OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, EVEN AS AMERICAN AND UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS PREPARE TO TALK ABOUT HOW TO END THE WAR.

KYIV SAYS MOSCOW'S BLOODY WEEKEND OF AERIAL ATTACKS HAS LED TO AT LEAST 22 DEATHS.

IT COMES AMID A U.S.

FREEZE ON WEAPONS SHIPMENTS AND INTELLIGENCE SHARING.

RUSSIA RELEASED THIS VIDEO OF WHAT IT SAYS ARE DRONE STRIKES ON A UKRAINIAN MILITARY COLUMN IN RUSSIA'S KURSK REGION.

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS REPORTS THAT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS THERE ARE AT RISK OF BEING ENCIRCLED.

TONIGHT, SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO HEADS TO SAUDI ARABIA WHERE HE'LL MEET WITH UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS ON TUESDAY TO EXPLORE DIPLOMATIC PATHS TO ENDING THE WAR.

JOHN HERBST IS THE FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE AND UZBEKISTAN.

HE'S NOW SENIOR DIRECTOR OF THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL'S EURASIA CENTER.

TRUMP'S SPECIAL ENVOY SAYS THE GOALS OF THIS MEETING IN SAUDI ARABIA ARE TO COME UP WITH A CEASE-FIRE AND A FRAMEWORK OF A PEACE AGREEMENT.

HOW LIKELY DO YOU THINK THAT IS TO HAPPEN?

>> I BELIEVE THAT MOSCOW WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE OPERATIONS.

ONE TO PICK UP MORE UKRAINIAN TERRITORY BEFORE SITTING DOWN TO TALK, AND TWO TO DRIVE UKRAINIAN FORCES OUT.

IF THE ADMINISTRATION'S OBJECTIVE IS TO ACHIEVE AS IT SAYS A DURABLE PEACE, WHICH BELIEVES UKRAINE SOVEREIGN AND INDEPENDENT, ECONOMICALLY VIABLE, AND IT IS GOING ABOUT IT THE WRONG WAY.

JOHN: WHY DO YOU SAY THAT?

>> BECAUSE MOSCOW BELIEVES, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF THE GIFTS PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN BESTOWING ON HIM, THAT HE WILL BE ABLE TO IN FACT TAKE THE UKRAINIANS OUT OF RUSSIA AND PICK UP MORE UKRAINIAN TERRITORY BECAUSE WE ARE WEAKENING UKRAINE'S DIFFERENCE.

WE STOPPED MILITARY SHIPMENTS, WE STOPPED PROVIDING INTEL AND IT'S NOT A SURPRISE THE RUSSIANS ARE TRYING HARD TO CONDUCT AN OFFENSIVE WHERE UKRAINIAN FORCES HAVE BEEN SINCE AUGUST.

JOHN: SO ENDING ARMS SHIPMENTS, ENDING INTELLIGENCE SHARING.

YOU SAID THOSE ARE GIFTS TO PUTIN?

>> HE HASN'T REALLY ENDED IT.

HE POSITIVE.

BUT FIRST, IT SEEMED TO BE A PAUSE BECAUSE OF THE UNFORTUNATE MEETING BETWEEN HIMSELF AND ZELENSKY ON FEBRUARY 28TH, IN THE OVAL OFFICE.

BUT THEN AFTER ZELENSKYY APOLOGIZED AND TRUMP SEEMED SATISFIED, THEY PUT ON NEW CONDITIONS LIKE NOW THIS WILL BE PAUSED UNTIL WE SEE PEACE TALKS REALLY STARTING TO MOVE OR NEGOTIATIONS SET.

SO THE END IS UNDETERMINED.

AGAIN, PUTIN IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS ABSENCE OF AMERICAN HELP TO MAKE GAINS ON THE BATTLEFIELD.

SO IF YOU WANT TO EMPOWER PUTIN, THE AGGRESSOR, DO EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING.

NOW, I'M NOT SAYING THAT'S TRUMP'S GOAL, BUT THAT'S THE IMPACT OF HIS DECISIONS.

JOHN: ON THIS POINT, THERE WAS AN INTERVIEW WITH TRUMP THAT WAS BROADCAST THIS MORNING ON FOX NEWS, AND HE WAS ASKED WHETHER HE'S BEING TOUGH ON RUSSIA.

AND HERE'S WHAT HE HAD TO SAY.

>> I THINK I'VE BEEN VERY TOUGH TO RUSSIA, TOUGHER THAN ANYBODY ANYBODY'S EVER BEEN TO RUSSIA.

PUTIN WOULD BE THE FIRST TO SAY IT.

NOBODY'S BEEN TOUGHER THAN TRUMP.

JOHN: WHAT DO YOU SAY TO THAT?

>> WELL, IF HE'S TALKING ABOUT HIS DECISION IN 2017 TO GIVE JAVELINS TO UKRAINE, I SAY ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

OBAMA WAS TOO TIMID TO DO THAT.

IF YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT NOW, NO.

HE'S AGAIN TAKING SERIOUS MEASURES THAT ARE WEAKENING UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO DEFEND ITSELF HE'S DONE NOTHING TO THE AGGRESSOR.

I BELIEVE, BECAUSE HE'S BEING CRITICIZED PRECISELY ALONG THESE LINES.

HE SAID, WELL, MAYBE WE'LL PUT SOME ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON IT.

BUT HE TALKS ABOUT ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON RUSSIA.

HE TAKES STRONG MEASURES AGAINST UKRAINE.

IT'S EASY TO SEE WHAT'S GOING ON.

JOHN: IN THAT OVAL OFFICE MEETING YOU REFERENCE TO, HE TOLD ZELENSKYY HE DID NOT HAVE THE CARDS TO KEEP GOING.

USING THAT ANALOGY, WHAT CARDS OR HAND IS VLADIMIR PUTIN HOLDING?

>> THE PRESIDENT JUST TOOK SEVERAL CARDS OUT OF ZELENSKY'S - - ZELENSKYY'S HANDS.

ONE STOPPING AMERICAN MILITARY SHIPMENTS, TWO STOPPING AMERICAN INTEL SHARING, AND THREE, WE'RE HEARING REPORTS THAT HE'S TRYING TO STOP EUROPEAN SUPPLIES FROM GETTING TO UKRAINE.

THEY ARE TRYING TO STOP COMMERCIAL SATELLITE COMPANIES FROM PROVIDING IMAGERY WHICH COULD HELP UKRAINE IF THEY DO HAVE AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE.

SO THESE ARE THE CARDS HE'S TAKING OUT OF THE HANDS OF THE VICTIM.

THIS MAY BE A SELF-FULFILLING STATEMENT.

JOHN: I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE BROADER U.S. AND EUROPEAN RELATIONSHIP.

WE HEARD PRINT -- FANS -- FRANCE SAY WE WILL USE HER OWN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A DETERRENT.

WHAT HAS THIS DONE TO THAT ALLIANCE?

>> IT HAS CERTAINLY SHAKEN THE ALLIANCE AND NOT JUST IN EUROPE.

PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD ARE SEEING THIS.

I THINK IT'S BASED UPON AN APPROACH THAT DOESN'T UNDERSTAND HOW OUR ALLIANCE SYSTEM HAS SERVED OUR INTERESTS GREATLY.

NOT PERFECTLY, TRUMP IS RIGHT, HE'S DONE WELL I GETTING ALLIES MORE DEFENSE COME UP WITH THIS ALLIANCE SYSTEM HAS BEEN THE PILLAR OF WORLD PEACE SINCE THE END OF WORLD WAR II.

NOT THE ONLY REASON, BUT THE PRINCIPAL REASON WHY THERE HAS NOT BEEN A MAJOR WAR BETWEEN GREAT POWERS.

AND THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT THE GREATEST DANGER TO THE UNITED STATES IS ONE MAJOR WARS THREATEN A MAJOR POWER THAT THREATENED MAJOR WAR WITH THE GREAT POWER.

THE WAY YOU BUNGLE A MAJOR WAR WITH AN ADVERSARY AS TO APPEAR WEAK.

I HAVE TO SAY THE ADMINISTRATION RIGHT NOW APPEARS IF NOT WEAK, THEN FRACTIOUS.

JOHN YANG: FORMER AMBASSADOR JOHN HERBST, THANK YOU VERY MUCH JOHN HERBST: MY PLEASURE.