>>> Coming up next on "Arizona horizon" we'll take a closer look at the latest inflation numbers.

Also tonight some endangered black-footed ferrets are finding a new home in the wild, and a conversation with Maureen Johnson, the author of a new young adult mystery novel.

Those stories and more next on "Arizona horizon."

>> Announcer: "Arizona horizon" is made possible by contributions from the friends of Arizona pbs.

Members of your public television station.

Good evening and welcome to "Arizona horizon" I'm Ted Simons.

Consumer prices increased last month by .6 that's the biggest gain in five months and it pushed the annual inflation rate to 3.7%.

Nowhere near where the fed wants it and that could very well mean another interest rate hike is in the offing.

What does all this mean to the overall economy?

We ask that question to economist Jim rounds, and of rounds consulting group.

Good to have you back again.

So what does all this mean?

>> Well, on the one hand inflation has been going up not just because of economics but especially because of gas prices.

So the fed saying we want to target 2% that's not a reasonable goal.

In reality because of the political pressure added to costs the price they are really targeting a negative amount.

So they're not being consistent.

Now the president wants them to lower interest rates with the economy and inflation heating up a little bit, you would normally raise interest rates but because we're in this weird period where it's not just the economy overheating it's politics just going off the rails and in D.C.

you end up with a situation where you should just leave these things alone in a little.

>> But politics is part of the whole equation if they are in the equation and you start cutting these interest rates and you start heating up an already hot economy, that is raising prices already don't those prices go up?

>> Yes, and, the biggest issue though is when we went through that 5%, 10% inflation growth a few years back, prices went up significantly over three or four year period.

And then inflation went back down to maybe 3%.

Well, it didn't go negative that means for the same basket of goods right now we're paying more than we were paying when inflation was 12% in the greater Phoenix area.

So, prices have gone up.

If you kind of reindex it, they have gone up about 90%, 95% since 2000.

Think about how that hits a household that has very little margin for spending on anything beyond basic goods.

>> Yeah, we're hearing how it's hitting households and voters are I think are starting to say a little about this as well.

Gas prices were up 9% for the month for goodness sakes, I mean you know, as well as anyone, diesel prices you increase diesel prices big time you increase the price of a whole bunch of stuff because diesel is transported these things.

>> and diesel has been jumping up.

Now we're going to see some of the other prices jump up.

It's almost like a month leading indicator for the other prices are going.

But, that's it's not just impacting the individual it's impacting the small business.

When I last was filling up my car, it was yesterday, I heard somebody say a pretty strong curse would bed on the -- curse word on the side of the pump he just put a lot of money to fill up his truck.

And this person very upset, and he had mentioned that cost is labor up is, and slim profits.

Think we'll see a lot of business problems New York matter what we do in the state, I said we would have better public policy in Arizona than the nation does back in B.C.

-- D.C.

but that has such a big impact in D.C.

that we can only make thing a little better with really good policy.

>> Arizona can't stop the war in Iran, it can't open up the strait of Hormuz and the red sea.

>> That's right.

>> This is a humongous factor here this is a self-inflicted wound, is it not?

>> It is.

When we get back we always want to try to figure out in our state what can we do?

Well we can try to lower prices but we're really not going to have much of an impact.

You know another way to make things more affordable increase wages.

I think we need to start investing more in what we started after the great recession which resulted in increases in our per capita after 30 years of decline.

We need to start working on additional workforce items and training especially with ai coming into play.

If we do that and wages go up and then maybe the prices moderate over time, maybe we could be a leader across the nation in getting back into balance but it's not going to happen in the next year or two.

>> Yeah, interesting.

But wages go up, then you have fall businesses paying we are having a tough enough time getting and keeping people right now.

Wage goes up every time there's any kind of increase in the minimum wage, business community cries they say hey, wait a minute now don't forget about us.

>> Well, that's the key.

If it's an artificial increase so, if it's a legislative increase, then the business isn't more profitable as well.

If it's a natural increase because the business is doing well and they're training their employees and they're doing well then everybody can benefit.

So when the government interferes a little too much it throws things out of balance whether they're raising wages or they're lowering something else, the government in the private sector have to be working close together at least compared to what we have seen in the past.

And, I still feel like Arizona has a lot of opportunities to do that.

But we're going to need the right kind of leadership after this next election.

>> Quickly the producer price index came out today up 1.3%.

Wholesale prices are up like 6%, biggest gain since 2022 I mean everything is going up.

>> That's right.

And I brought up this term that's kind of usual where whenever something happens and prices go up, they seem to be stuck up for a long time they don't just drop quickly.

But when prices fall they bounce back up right away as soon as there's an argument for it.

So I'm afraid we're going to be in that sticky up situation where prices even when things even out it's still going to take a while for them to come back out because people are getting used to these higher prices and that's a concern because if too many people with higher incomes get used to the prices they may not recognize the need, the additional need for the lower income people.

I'm not just advocating for lower income I'm advocating for everybody.

Small businesses, rural, urban we need to do things well but we still are going to be constrained by unfortunately some of our colleagues in D.C.

>> Real quickly consumer price index up, producer price index up, are we approaching tiptoeing near any kind of recession, do you see?

>> I think we would have been in a recession if we didn't spend $16 trillion in the last six years to fill that hole.

So because the federal government spent so much money that went throughout the economy, we've been doing kind of a little bit of a bounce along the bottom -- bit of a bounce along the bottom and it's possible we may have actually started our downturn because it's different this time we haven't had a normal recession since 2001.

>> So we could be in the middle of it right now and not even realize it.

>> That's right.

>> Jim rounds, rounds consulting great information.

Good to have you here.

Thank you.

>> Thank you.

>>> 24 endangered black-footed ferrets are now back in their natural habitat after the captive born creatures were released last month by Arizona wildlife officials.

It's an effort to help rescue and revive north America's only native ferret species.

To learn more we welcome Holly hicks, she's a small mammals biologist for Arizona game and fish.

Good to have you here.

>> Thank you.

>> 24 of these things are now running wild out there.

>> Absolutely.

So they're black-footed ferrets so what is a black-footed ferret?

>> It is similar to what people have in their homes a domestic ferret but this is a much wilder version.

Actually not even that closely reeled.

So, these guys are have these little black noses, black rounded ears and black on their legs so they sometimes will look similar to some domestic ferrets but I guarantee you if you see one in the wild you will know that there's something different at.

>> They're cute little things.

>> They are adorable.

>> And they're the only native ferret species to north America?

>> Correct.

Where do ferrets usually come from?

>> Well, they're closely related to the Siberian pole cat closely related to something from Asia.

>> Interesting.

Where are they found in Arizona?

>> Across northern Arizona we have gunnerson prairie dogs so there are a couple of different colonies where we have them one is in near Auburn Valley oo ranch area.

They have black-footed ferrets we have been watching and monitoring out there since 1996.

So we're on our 30 year anniversary actually out there.

Then just most recently, we released them at garland prairie south of park Arizona.

This is the second site in the U.S.

that is on forest service land.

So our partners on the national forest had partnered up with us and we have been releasing ferrets now out there.

>> Now you mention prairie dogs because where prairie dogs are these little guys follow because they that's their prey, correct?

>> Prey, and then they live in their burro as well.

>> But the ferrets are endanger asked we have lost a lot of them apparently over the years.

Why?

>> Well, a couple of big reasons.

First and foremost, a lot of the grasslands across the upper midwest has been turned into farmland a lot of the prairie dog colonies have been reduced.

There's also disease which is a plague that's pretty rampant across a lot of western U.S.

and it is highly susceptible for both the prairie dogs and black-footed ferrets both highly susceptible to the plague.

>> We're talking you plague here.

>> Yeah.

>> The real deal.

>> The real deal, yes.

Most people don't hear a lot about plague anymore because of antibiotics we don't have you know outbreaks among humans any longer but within rodent populations the flea still spread it very commonly.

>> You mentioned midwest and everything why are they endangered in Arizona as well?

>> Yes, they're endangered across the U.S.

They're the most endangered mammal in north America, actually.

>> Wow.

>> Yeah, so we have about 300 that are out in the wild, and within Arizona we have we started doing back in '96 had populations into very well but with plague we lost in turn you lose your population toker ifets.

>> Now 24 have been released around the state here.

They're captive born, correct.

>> Correct.

>> How does that work with first of all captive born and secondly how do you know where to put them and what's the process to release them?

>> Well, there is somebody from fish and will life who is very dedicated to making sure that they pair everyone up appropriately.

But because ferrets were they were thought to be extinct so when they did find a population that was still running out they pull them into the wild into a captive facility and there are five facilities across the nation that lull, including the Phoenix -- including the Phoenix zoo they all help reproduce once the kids are Gordon they go to preconditioning pin.

>> How does that work that sounds fascinating.

>> They have to learn how to hunt a prairie dog because they can be rule ready to go out for release and then, fish and will life is the one that divvies things up and decides where they go across the nation and we make our request every year to early in the spring before the ferrets are even breeding.

>> Do some ferrets have to go in a certain like this one looks like it can't handle the cold all that well or this one can't handle the heat?

>> They don't go there.

I think that literally it's just a game of the genetics game of how do we keep the animals that are least related in the same space.

>> Now you guys are also looking for volunteers to help with all this is that true?

>> That is true so the you a agree Valley inn and oo ranch area is thousands and thousands of acres.

It's a hard area to cover with just the few biologists so we invite the public to come out and shine spotlights.

You got to be a night owl because you got to be able to stay awake all night because black-footed ferrets are nocturnal.

You get to learn for those emerald green eye shine.

It's pretty distinct for ferrets.

One that shines you go out and set your traps we go out and see if it's a new individual or something we captured before.

>> And then let them go immediately right as soon as you got done.

>> After we know for sure they are fully vaccinated we know who they are they go go right back to where we find them.

The volunteers are integral to that?

>> Do you have enough volunteers?

>> Sometimes less than others.

There are times we have 60 people who show up and want to come out and find ferrets.

People travel from all over the country to do it.

>> Wow.

>> Wow, that's fascinating.

>> So if someone is watching this, they are the cutest little thing they want to be involved in this.

This is not only the capture and release but to count them as well I would imagine?

>> Right.

This helps figure out how many kits, how many that their young of the year how many young they had that year.

>> Where do we go to find out how to volunteer.

>> We on Arizona game and fish page we have a volunteer.

>> Volunteer.az.gfwl.gov.

>> Good to have you here.

>> Thank you.

>>> A new murder mystery featuring teenage detective just hit bookstore shelves the book is titled "The velvet knife."

Involving young adult detectives Stevie bell who recently spoke to author Maureen Johnson about her latest mystery novel.

Maureen Johnson thank you for joining us.

>> Yeses velvet knife this is the last in the series.

>> There's one more.

>> There's another one coming.

>> There's one more.

This is truly devious.

>> .

>> That's the name of the first book and the sign off on a letter on a ransom letter from the 1930s that the book cold case the first base is -- first book is based on.

>> No they are present day but the cold cases take place in the past.

>> But there is some history in there?

>> Yes, there is.

>> Is that difficult to do to juggle to get that jigsaw puzzle some place?

>> That's how my mind works, that's the structure that came out.

That's also my obsessive history of, for example, you know, it's do I also want to talk about Watergate, sure I do, do I want to talk about cults and conditioning, absolutely.

>> So when we're talking history we're talking all kinds of history.

>> All kinds of history.

>> Is it difficult to keep a series alive?

>> Not if you set about to do the thing you need to do.

I wanted to create a detective because I was a little kid when was a detective.

My favorite first character was poirot I just wanted to read about them.

So I set out to create a detective.

Once you establish your detective you can move him around.

You can have them do other cases.

>> Yeah, they're protagonist they go here there, and everywhere.

>> Yeah, things happen.

>> You got to keep them alive though.

>> Until the end, yeah, sure.

Then you can do what you want.

>> Stevie bell who is Stevie bell.

>> She's a very anxious but very observant person who thinks she has no escape is very anxious about the world and what she is supposed to know what she wants to be but she's also obsessed with old cases and trying to solve things and understanding why.

>> That's where the history comes into play?

>> It's history mystery it's all about trying to figure out the why.

And you get an answer in mysteries.

>> The novel touches on her relationships and her growing.

In growing we get to have growth in the protagonist or we don't have a novel, right.

>> Ideally you get a little more leeway sometimes I think with mystery novels because you're so aware that you are playing a game.

>> Yeah, when you're writing a mystery novel.

>> You get -- mystery novel.

>> You get a little more rope.

It's the one kind of thing that you write that you're very, very aware that the reader is sitting right behind you and you are trying to fool them and you know that they are watching for you.

>> I work from the back to the front.

How do you do that what does it mean?

>> I start with everything the why before I go to the who and how then I build the case file entirely and I figure out everything that happened then I pull information off of it.

>> OK.

>> Wow and it all works out the characters don't do something out of the blue.

>> No, because I'm in control.

I'm very much one of those people what are the character doing, what I tell them to do.

[Laughter] Do you know how many authors I interview that say the character also do something different and I got to follow them.

You are saying no.

>> I am the boss of them.

I created them my job is to punish them because that is what fiction is.

Fiction is conflict and then things getting resolve.

>> OK.

That's something to touch on there.

This book deals with cults and cult psychology.

>> Yeah.

>> Talking about cults to a young adult audience, trickery involve there, what do you think?

>> Not at all.

I grew up at a time when it seemed like every other news program or show was about a cult and one was going to get you.

Somebody was going to get you.

They had a lot of reason to worry.

There were some scary damaging and scary things like Jonestown happened, and things like people thought they were going to be taken by a spaceship.

But, it's all about conditioning.

It's all about having your message and being very slowly controlled.

>> Yes, that's something kids understand.

>> Something kids understand as well as you mentioned that Stevie has anxiety issues and anxiety disorder and these sorts of things, important to get that at least involved in the story so that kids can experience it?

>> In terms of her having anxiety a lot of kids have anxiety.

>> Right.

>> I think they have a lot of reason to.

But it doesn't have to be everything.

It can just be I have blue eyes and I like tacos and I have anxiety.

It doesn't have to be, I think, a way of dealing with this it doesn't have to be everything it can just be part of it.

>> Right.

But touches a young adult audience a teen audience -- it would seem to me you don't want to talk down to this audience for goodness sakes but you don't want to leave them in the lurch because you have maybe gone in a way that might be something they aren't experienced with or maybe don't understand.

Do you have to -- >> Honestly the whole trick with why, first of all, I never thought I could because I went to an all Catholic girls school I was never allowed to do anything or wear tight pants I was like I can't reel because I was never allowed to do anything.

Anger and frustration being in a girls school where I can never go outside keep that anger it will fuel you.

But, no they're exactly the same.

Why readers read at the same level of adults it's just it's a literature first.

That's the really the key.

>> It is the key but you got to keep that in mind when they are sitting there watching you write.

>> You have to keep in mind they might not have enough experience and you have to keep in mind the age of your protagonist.

That's really what you are dealing with.

>> After all this time do you find yourself engrossed in these kind of eye -- ideas?

>> Hold onto that stuff it's very valuable.

Hold onto things that irritate you, hold onto things that annoy you they are all gems hold onto them.

>> We are running out of time here I know you have a big presence on social media how important is that to you?

>> Well, it changes you know, social media changes all the time.

But, I feel strongly you should do what feels right.

If it doesn't feel right to do it if the format doesn't feel right don't do it if it does do it.

I think if you try to force yourself into doing something.

>> The reason I ask and curious writing can be very lonely solitary kind of thing.

Everything -- solitary kind of thing.

>> That's my job.

So I love my job.

Also I write sometimes with other writers a lot of other writers are my friends.

But I started out the writer John green and I used to write every single day together at a coffee shop.

So, and so many of my friends are other writers we work together.

.

We go away together.

And I have a dog.

Who doesn't want that.

>> Maybe it's not a lowly and solitary place.

>> No.

She just brings over her stuffed pup and says time to take a break.

>> Congratulations by the way.

When you hold the book every time is it kind of magical?

>> I tend to forget sometimes when people say they have read my book I'm like well, how, it's in my house.

Oh, right, that's published.

It's out there in the world.

>> It must be neat to see it halfway across the world.

>> That's some stuff I made up.

>> Maureen Johnson "The velvet knife."

>> Thank you for coming on and continued success.

>> Thank you for having me.

>> That's it for now I'm Ted Simons.

Thank you so much for joining us.